The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has stated that Iran could resume enriching uranium for a potential nuclear bomb “in a matter of months.” This contradicts President Donald Trump’s claim that recent US strikes “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities.1
Damage to Iranian Nuclear Facilities
Grossi confirmed on Saturday that while the recent US strikes on three Iranian sites (Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan) caused severe damage, it was “not total.” He emphasized that Iran still possesses the “industrial and technological capacities” to resume uranium enrichment if they choose.2 This assessment aligns with a Pentagon intelligence report that suggested the strikes only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months.
Background of the Strikes and Ceasefire
The US joined Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear and military sites on June 13, following Israeli claims that Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon.3 Despite Trump’s strong assertions about the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites, the true extent of the damage has remained unclear.4 Currently, Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire.5 However, Trump has indicated he would consider further bombings if intelligence suggests Iran is enriching uranium to concerning levels.
Conflicting Messages from Iran and Strained Relations with IAEA
Iran has offered conflicting messages regarding the extent of the damage. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated the strikes achieved nothing significant, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged “excessive and serious” damage.6
Relations between Iran and the IAEA have become further strained. Iran’s parliament recently moved to suspend cooperation with the atomic watchdog, accusing the IAEA of siding with Israel and the US.7 This decision followed the UN body’s finding last month that Tehran breached its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.8 Iran consistently maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful and for civilian use only.9
Hopes for a Diplomatic Solution and Previous Nuclear Deal
Despite the current refusal to cooperate, Grossi remains hopeful for negotiations with Tehran, emphasizing that a “long-lasting solution” must be a diplomatic one.10
Under the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, Iran was restricted from enriching uranium above 3.67% purity and prohibited from enrichment at its Fordo plant for 15 years. However, Trump abandoned this agreement in 2018 and reinstated US sanctions, leading Iran to increasingly breach the restrictions.11 The IAEA has reported that Iran resumed enrichment at Fordo in 2021 and had amassed enough 60%-enriched uranium to potentially make nine nuclear bombs.
