Pakistan’s growing ties with the US—especially following Trump’s announcement to develop Islamabad’s oil reserves and increase the American presence near Iran’s border—raise key questions about how this will impact Tehran’s relationship with its neighbor.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Pakistan over the weekend, where he and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pledged to strengthen bilateral ties.
During the visit, both leaders signed agreements aimed at boosting trade to $10 billion (€8.6 billion) and enhancing security cooperation.
Iran and Pakistan share a 900-kilometer (560-mile) border, cutting through the volatile region of Balochistan—which includes Pakistan’s Balochistan province and Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, as well as parts of Afghanistan. Both countries face persistent security threats from militant groups operating in the area, such as Jaish al-Adl in Iran and the Pakistan-based Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which have carried out multiple cross-border attacks.
“Iran appears to be shifting toward security diplomacy rather than confrontation,” said Fatemeh Aman, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, in an interview with DW. “Tehran is actively pursuing intelligence-sharing arrangements, joint border patrols, and broader coordinated security efforts with Islamabad.”
Although Iran and Pakistan have a shared strategic interest in combating these insurgent groups, their relations have occasionally been strained—particularly following cross-border attacks that led to retaliatory missile strikes last year.
Despite these tensions, the broader relationship between the two countries remains relatively stable. Pakistan recently expressed strong support for Iran during its 12-day conflict with Israel, condemning Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and holding Israel responsible for the escalation.
However, Pakistan’s deepening partnership with the United States—highlighted by Trump’s announcement to invest in Pakistan’s oil sector and increase U.S. presence near Iran’s border—could become a source of unease for Tehran. The U.S. and Iran have had a long and tense history, particularly over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Still, as Aman pointed out, “Despite its close ties with Washington, Pakistan has consistently steered clear of direct military alignment against Iran.” From Tehran’s perspective, “Islamabad is not seen as a likely base for hostile operations against Iran,” she added.
US-Pakistan Partnership: A Complicated Balancing Act
Last week, US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Pakistan to help develop the country’s oil reserves—many of which are located in Balochistan. This move could significantly expand US influence near Iran’s eastern border, a development Tehran is likely watching closely.
The region holds strategic importance for the United States due to its rich natural resources, geographical location, and proximity to both Iran and Afghanistan.
“Iran may view a growing American presence along its border with suspicion, especially if US companies begin oil exploration in Balochistan,” said Osama Malik, a trade law expert, in a statement to DW. “But it’s worth noting that Pakistan has similarly expressed concern over Indian involvement in Iran’s Chabahar Port. The wariness goes both ways.”
Muhammad Shoaib, an international affairs expert and assistant professor at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, pointed out that the US-Pakistan relationship has historically swung between close alliance and deep mistrust—marked by cooperation during the Cold War and the War on Terror, but also strained by disagreements over Pakistan’s counterterrorism performance and its ties with militant groups.
“Iran has observed these ups and downs over the years,” Shoaib told DW. “So it’s not overly concerned by the recent warming between Islamabad and Washington.”
Despite the appearance of renewed cooperation, the US-Pakistan relationship remains anything but straightforward. In a striking example of its complexity, Pakistan recently nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his “decisive diplomatic intervention” during a crisis with India—only to condemn US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities less than a day later.
Iran Seeking Pakistan’s Diplomatic Support Amid Rising Tensions
“As the threat of potential Israeli or US military action against Iran becomes more tangible, Tehran is actively working to strengthen its ties with Pakistan,” said Fatemeh Aman, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Aman noted that Iran expects Pakistan to continue backing its right to a peaceful civilian nuclear program.
However, Pakistan finds itself in a diplomatically delicate position—navigating closer strategic ties with the United States while also maintaining support for its Muslim neighbor, Iran.
“Iran needs a credible channel to Washington—and Pakistan has historically fulfilled that role,” said Muhammad Shoaib, international affairs expert and assistant professor at Quaid-i-Azam University. “Pakistan supports Iran’s right to a civilian nuclear program but draws a clear line at endorsing the development of nuclear weapons.”
Following a meeting last month in Washington between Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the latter commended Pakistan’s efforts to mediate between Tehran and Washington and promote regional stability.
“Islamabad is willing to play a constructive role in easing tensions between Iran and the US,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan told DW.
Trade law expert Osama Malik added, “Iran likely sees value in Pakistan’s growing ties with President Trump and hopes Islamabad can leverage that relationship to help secure a civilian nuclear deal.”
US Sanctions Hamper Pakistan-Iran Trade
US sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program remain a major obstacle to full-fledged bilateral trade between Tehran and Islamabad.
According to international affairs expert Muhammad Shoaib, Pakistan has largely avoided formal economic engagement with Iran—most notably the stalled Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project—due to concerns over violating US sanctions. “Islamabad will likely seek some form of sanctions relief before pursuing a deeper trade relationship with Iran,” he noted.
Despite the restrictions, informal trade between the two countries persists. Trade law expert Osama Malik pointed out that “Pakistan already engages in off-the-books trade with Iran, and by some estimates, around 30% of Pakistan’s fuel needs are met through smuggled Iranian oil.” He added that if Pakistan could help de-escalate tensions between Tehran and Washington, it might pave the way for a loosening of US sanctions.
However, for now, major infrastructure projects such as the gas pipeline remain stalled. Analyst Fatemeh Aman explained, “Given the current circumstances, it’s unlikely the pipeline will move forward. Islamabad is unwilling to risk secondary US sanctions or further strain its ties with Washington.”
